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As the energy is essentially free, renewable electricity costs, like those of nuclear electricity, are almost entirely dependent on the up-front construction costs and the method of financing these.  Minimising the initial investment, relative to the expected energy yield, is critical to commercial viability.  But revenue is also dependent on when, and where, the energy can be delivered to meet the demand patterns of energy consumers.

For example, if it requires four times the capital investment in equipment to extract one megawatt hour (1 MWh) of useable electricity from sunlight, as compared to extracting it from wind, engineers need to find ways of quartering the cost of solar capture and conversion equipment; or increasing the energy converted to electricity fourfold; to make solar directly competitive.

Similarly if a technology produces electricity when consumers don’t want it; or produces it so far from the consumer that most of it is lost in transmission; then the revenue available will be proportionately less than a similar investment that better matches demand; or is located close to where it is consumed.

 

In most developed nations, including Australia, electricity is a traded product with the market price fluctuating from hour to hour; day to day; season to season; in five minute intervals, according to supply and demand.

 

Without government intervention in the market, supply and demand determines the return that is available to an investment; while the engineering solution and qualities of the resource determine the energy that a particular investment can theoretically deliver.

 

Before intervention, current renewable technologies, with the exception of hydro- electricity, are substantially less competitive, in terms of return on investment, than fossil fuels or nuclear electricity.  It follows that wherever alternatives are in use there are other factors at play: such as the cost or practicality of a grid connection; or a government intervention in support of renewables.

In Australian electricity markets this intervention takes the form of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) described later. Other governments have other instruments such as cap and trade carbon reduction schemes; carbon taxes; energy buy-back schemes; and tax breaks; to achieve similar ends.

 

In Australia grid losses are of particular concern. Australia’s population of just over 21 million is highly concentrated in a few large cities; just eight cities accounting for over 70% of the population. The largest Sydney; Melbourne; Brisbane; Perth and Adelaide account for 63% but are separated by distances of between 670 and 3,600 km; ‘as the crow flies’. This is similar to the continental USA and a substantially greater area than the entire EEC.

Transmitting electricity over such distances results in significant losses.  The market price received by a generator is therefore influenced by transmission costs and the point on the grid into which electricity generated is injected.  A renewable energy project remote from the points of high demand will receive a lower price than one adjacent. 

Very high voltage DC (HVDC) technology can reduce the net grid loss problem over long distances, and this is in use for links to Tasmania and South Australia, but it adds at least two costly voltage translations and the additional capital cost, together with the low capacity factor of wind and solar, precludes its use in most, if not all renewables dedicated situations.

 

Even with the present substantial and probably increasing REC cross-subsidies from electricity consumers, transmission factors limit the economic distance an exploitable wind or solar resource can be from the main electricity grid and electricity consumers.

 


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Travel

Southern France

Touring in the South of France

September 2014

 

Lyon

Off the plane we are welcomed by a warm Autumn day in the south of France.  Fragrant and green.

Lyon is the first step on our short stay in Southern France, touring in leisurely hops by car, down the Rhône valley from Lyon to Avignon and then to Aix and Nice with various stops along the way.

Months earlier I’d booked a car from Lyon Airport to be dropped off at Nice Airport.  I’d tried booking town centre to town centre but there was nothing available.

This meant I got to drive an unfamiliar car, with no gearstick or ignition switch and various other novel idiosyncrasies, ‘straight off the plane’.  But I managed to work it out and we got to see the countryside between the airport and the city and quite a bit of the outer suburbs at our own pace.  Fortunately we had ‘Madam Butterfly’ with us (more of her later) else we could never have reached our hotel through the maze of one way streets.

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Fiction, Recollections & News

On The Secret

There is an obvious sub-text to my short story: The Secret, that I wrote in 2015 after a trip to Russia. Silly things, we might come to believe in, like 'the law of attraction' are not harmless. 

The story is also a reflection on the difference between American and Australian stereotypes, that were evident from conversations on the cruise.

I lived in New York for some time and my eldest daughter was born there. I have visited the US fairly regularly since. It is, in many ways, the closest country to Australia that you will find, outside New Zealand.  So, I have often been surprised by how different it is in other ways to Australia, given the great similarities in the median standard of living, shared popular culture and immigrant demographics.

I have come to the conclusion that this stems from our different founding origins.

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Opinions and Philosophy

Luther - Father of the Modern World?

 

 

 

 

To celebrate or perhaps just to mark 500 years since Martin Luther nailed his '95 theses' to a church door in Wittenberg and set in motion the Protestant Revolution, the Australian Broadcasting Commission has been running a number of programs discussing the legacy of this complex man featuring leading thinkers and historians in the field. 

Much of the ABC debate has centred on Luther's impact on the modern world.  Was he responsible for today or might the world still be stuck in the 'middle ages' with each generation doing more or less what the previous one did, largely within the same medieval social structures?  In that case could those inhabitants, obviously not us, still live in a world of less than a billion people, most of them working the land as their great grandparents had done, protected and governed by an hereditary aristocracy, their mundane lives punctuated only by variations in the weather and occasional wars between those princes?

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